June 10th, 2010

poker chips

Rising Tide of Bad Luck

 "A one-hundred-year flood is calculated to be the level of flood water expected to be equaled or exceeded every 100 years on average. The 100-year flood is more accurately referred to as the 1% flood, since it is a flood that has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any single year."

The last 8 days have been the absolute worse since I started playing Texas Holdem almost ten years ago.  I lost over 20% of my poker bankroll in just 3 days.  The other five days cost me 2% more of my live poker bankroll. 

I've had some bad beats, but none that qualified for the $121,000 bad beat jackpot at the Orleans this week.  I had people calling me with any two undercards over and over again.  When I flopped top two pair or a set they hit runner/runner to draw out on me.  Their reasoning was that they called because I was running bad and they had a good chance to draw out on me. 

Nobody wants to hear bad beat stories,  so I will tell you just one.  Multiply it by 165 Big Bets to calculate my total 80 hour loss.  

A typical hand would go like this: I raise Under The Gun with AQ suited. The Small Blind calls the raise with J8 off suit and no other players in the pot. The flop comes AQ3 rainbow. SB checks and I bet out with the top two pair.  SB calls with nothing but air and turns a Jack. SB checks, I bet and he calls. The river brings  the case Jack (as another player had folded a Jack to my pre-flop raise).  The SB bets out and shows his runner Jacks.

When the player who folded the Jack asked the SB why he called the tightest player at the table who raised from early position, with no other players involved in the hand.  The SB simply replied that he was taking advantage of my bad luck and figured he had a better chance at going "perfect/perfect" than I had of my UTG hand holding up! 

And you know, he was right! 

My chances of stopping an 8 day losing streak when every player in the Orleans Poker Room is "taking advantage of my bad luck"  are close to zero .  So I canceled the last six days of my hotel reservation, turned in my rental car and collected more than enough to pay for an immediate return to Dallas on Southwest Airlines.   

I'm just happy I was able to book that small win because if I learned anything from Obama, I have learned that  no matter how bad things are,  they can always get MUCH worse. I'll take my chances with the 78% of my remaining bankroll
AFTER the flood of bad "rivers" at the Orleans & the near record Bad Beat Jackpot resets.